Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) began their title defense with a record 202-run chase against Gujarat Giants, followed by an easy eight-wicket victory over Delhi Capitals (DC). However, losing all four home games in Bengaluru has put them in danger of being eliminated in the league stage.
RCB, with only four points from six games, can reach a maximum of eight points by winning their remaining two matches against UP Warriorz and Mumbai Indians (MI). Giants and MI already have eight points, while DC are ahead of RCB with ten points and unreachable. Despite this, RCB’s playoff fate remains in their hands. So far, DC has secured a playoff spot, while UP Warriorz are out of contention.
RCB’s Must-Win Situation
RCB’s chances of reaching the WPL 2025 playoffs will end this Saturday if they lose to Warriorz. But a win on Saturday means they will be closely watching the game between MI and Giants to see which team’s net run rate (NRR) they need to surpass to qualify for the playoffs. Giants currently have a better NRR than MI, and a potential advantage for RCB is that their final match is against MI.
RCB is almost 60 runs behind MI’s NRR. To overtake MI, RCB would need to win against UPW by about ten runs and then beat MI by approximately 20 runs, assuming MI loses to Giants by a similar margin. However, surpassing Giants will be more challenging for RCB. If Giants lose to MI by ten runs, RCB would need a combined winning margin of around 62 runs in their matches against UPW and MI.
Are Delhi Capitals Guaranteed a Final Spot?
DC finished their league stage as leaders with five wins, but their direct qualification for the final for the third consecutive season is not yet certain as both MI and Giants could overtake them. MI can finish top if they win both of their remaining games, while Giants can move ahead of DC if they beat MI by a significant margin.
To surpass DC’s NRR, Giants need to win against MI by 17 runs or with 12 balls to spare (assuming a first innings score of 180). MI, on the other hand, are about 30 runs behind DC. This means if MI loses one of their two games by ten runs, they would need to win the other by around 40 runs to get ahead of DC on NRR.
Sampath Bandarupalli is a statistician at ESPNcricinfo
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